Whither the Debt Ceiling?

Though this blog has mostly featured excerpts from my cross-country bike trip earlier this summer, I promised sundry other topics and, aside from the odd post about Tottenham Hotspur, future posts will probably be more heavily geared to economic policy and politics.

The threatened shutdown of the federal government in less than four days is currently occupying much of the media's attention but just weeks later a much more problematic threshold awaits: the debt limit. The debt limit restricts the total borrowing of the US Treasury, and after October 17th, absent Congressional action, the Treasury would no longer be able to pay all the bills of the government.

This clip from the West Wing pretty well captures the political norms around the debt ceiling under previous presidents - in particular, using the debt ceiling as leverage to achieve other policy ends was considered far too dangerous. However, in the 2011 debt ceiling fight, this norm was violated as President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner negotiated deficit reduction linked to raising the debt ceiling. As discussed in this post by Matthew Yglesias and echoed by Jonathan Chait, Ezra Klein and others, this decision to allow the weaponization the debt ceiling may prove to be the costliest in Obama's presidency.

Given the threat posed by using the debt ceiling as political leverage, Obama has pledged not to negotiate again over raising the debt ceiling. Speaker Boehner, in an effort to get past the immediate government shutdown deadline, has pledged to his caucus that he will extract significant concessions from the president in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Moreover, a fraction of the House Republican caucus has expressed the view that breaching the debt ceiling would not be interpreted as a default since incoming cash flows more than cover interest payments on the debt.

So how does this game end? Each party appears to have backed itself into a corner, and it certainly would be the case that clean debt ceiling increase (Obama's preferred outcome) would have the votes to pass the House (and Senate) if brought to the floor. However, such a capitulation would likely cost Boehner his job.

One option might be to make a token concession to Boehner, but it's hard to imagine what such a concession might be that would still preserve the Obama's credibility. Paradoxically, the best way to resolve the debt ceiling may be a government shutdown next week. The shutdown would build political pressure for a resolution without risking a default and financial crisis. Concessions won on the budget would allow Boehner to claim victory while Obama could argue that he compromised over the budget, not the debt ceiling.

However, a shutdown averted this week while leaving the debt ceiling unaddressed increases the possibility of a debt ceiling breach. It's difficult to know the consequences of a default (which in the immediate days following Oct. 17 would result in delayed payments) - certainly financial markets would sell off, but a commitment by Obama to fully pay interest on the debt could be enough to head off a sharp rise in borrowing rates. A week of airports closed, soldiers and Social Security recipients going unpaid, and agencies shuttered would force Congress to raise the debt ceiling.

The Departed

Three weeks into the new season and a day before the end of the transfer window, the North London derby came early this year. Tottenham Hotspur have spent better than 100 million pounds buying players versus nothing for Arsenal, but in today's match at the Emirates Stadium, Spurs were yet again outdone by their neighbors. Arsenal's narrow win had as much to do with Spurs lack of a cutting edge as with Arsenal's superior creativity in the midfield.

Olivier Giroud with the match winner

The absence of any creativity in the side can be attributed to the departure of Gareth Bale. After today's match, Spurs announced the sale of Gareth Bale to Real Madrid for a world record transfer fee of 86 million pounds, eclipsing the fee Real paid for Ronaldo from Manchester United five years earlier. In the second half of last season, the Welsh wizard nearly single-handedly dragged Spurs into the Champions League places with late game match winners against West Ham, Southampton, and Sunderland. In two years, two of Tottenham's best creative and skillful players have left to Real Madrid: Luka Modric and Gareth Bale. A Spurs fan is only left to wonder where their team may if they remained. My fandom of Spurs began three years ago by watching these two work their magic.

At multiple points today, Spurs could have used the services of either man. While Spurs retained superior possession, they had a hard time finding their way through the Arsenal midfield and creating clear cut chances. Delivery from wide areas was poor with Tottenham showing little threat from outside the box.

The truth of the matter is that Spurs have bought almost an entirely new team this offseason. It will invariably take time for players to develop chemistry and adapt their talents to the English game. The new creative players that Spurs have signed - Eric Lamela and Christian Eriksen - just arrived and hardly featured in today's match. Moreover, in days of Modric and Bale, Spurs were overly reliant on scoring goals from outside the box - soccer's version of the low-percentage shot. Time will tell if this new team can score more "cheap" goals from set pieces and drawing penalties. But, Modric and Bale brought flair and style to the team. It may be early days, but the play of this more muscular side is damp squib in comparison to last year's team and Spurs under Redknapp.

Many Spurs fans evince a good deal of optimism about what this new team can do, and perhaps they are right. But I will certainly miss the Spurs of old . . . and sheer talent and class of Gareth Bale.

Your Turn: What to Carry?

Figuring out what to carry on a cross-country trip may seem daunting, but it is probably the easiest thing to figure out and adjust as you go along. Every cross-country cyclist faces the tradeoff of carrying more gear and being better prepared for different situations or carrying less gear and traveling lighter and faster. Your personal budget and tolerance for roughing it will dictate that tradeoff.

Camping versus motels:
Unlike most cross-country cyclists, I did not carry any camping gear on my trip. In retrospect, carrying some rudimentary camping gear might not have been a bad idea; it allows you more flexibility to adjust your mileage. I made motel reservations in advance - usually by several weeks - and therefore had a schedule to keep. The distances between lodgings in the West will often dictate riding longer or shorter distances than you might otherwise want to. Moteling is significantly more expensive than camping, but does offer some comforts at the end of the day: a bed, air conditioned room, shower, and TV/wifi. However, given that you can always opt for a motel, the only reason not to carry camping gear is to reduce weight.

Equipment:
A good road bike is a prerequisite for any cross-country trip. Your bike will cover a lot of miles and take a beating; do not attempt a cross-country trip on $50 bike from Walmart. A decent bike shop will carry touring bikes designed for long-distance riding. These bikes are engineered to attach both front and rear panniers, use cantilever brakes which are stronger than caliper brakes on a road bike, and sport the gearing for climbing comfortably while carrying 40-50 pounds of gear.

However, instead of buying a touring bike, I purchased a road bike: Specialized Secteur Elite. With a carbon fork and stem, this bike is somewhat lighter than a touring bike but has attachment points for a rear rack. Road bikes are perfectly fine for a cross-country ride so long as you do not overweight the bike; the wheels are not designed for heavy duty touring. I carried all my gear in two waterproof Ortlieb rear panniers attached to a Topeak rear rack and rear trunk bag on top.

One thing to be aware of if using a road bike is that the gearing may not be right for getting up the various climbs you encounter. My rear cassette was originally a SRAM 12-26 and even in the lowest gear, I had a lot of trouble getting up the steep grades in Pennsylvania. In Bozeman, MT, I switched the cassette to a Shimano 12-30; the larger cog (30) in the back made it considerably easier to climb. Do something I did not do: ride your bike fully loaded several times before departing.

Technology and electronics:
A good smartphone will greatly enhance a cross-country journey. A smartphone is particularly useful for finding the distance to the next food/gas station options on the route, or finding an alternative route in suburban/urban settings. In some areas of the West, cell service becomes either spotty or unavailable. I went to the trouble (and expense) of renting a satellite phone, but, in retrospect, I would only carry a satellite phone if you are cycling in remote, untraveled areas like gravel trails out West or touring in remote areas like Alaska.

Another useful gadget is a GPS for mapping and navigation. I bought a Garmin Edge 800 and, before each day's ride, I loaded the course route. With the exception of bike trails, the route maps appeared up to date and easily directed me through residential roads and rural country roads.

Clothing and other gear:
On a cross-country journey, you will need to be prepared to cycle through all kinds of weather. A couple days in Pennsylvania had temperatures in the 40s while several days out West, temperatures peaked near 100 in the afternoon. Cold weather gear may be needed depending on when you leave, a waterproof rain jacket is a must, and sunscreen essential. I carried only sandals as footwear, shorts and a T-shirt to wear when not cycling to minimize weight. I also carried my MacBook Air cross country - a unnecessary but nice indulgence at minimal additional weight.

Getting chased down by a dog is something that most cyclists can attest to. Most of the time, owners would manage to stop their dogs from chasing after me, but I did encounter cross-country cyclists who had been either chased for awhile or had dogs try to bite them. Pepper spray is an option which I carried, but many cyclists just recommend using your water bottle to spray the dog or simply trying to outrun the dog.

Bike repair and maintenance:
Before leaving on my trip, I invested a fair amount of time learning how to address a variety of possible bike breakdowns. However, as it turned out, the only problem I encountered were a couple of flat tires. My friend Andrew got a flat on the open road, riding into Minneapolis, while my bike took a flat on a day off in Miles City, MT. Needless to say, knowing how to fix a flat is a must and very easy to learn and practice. My tires were puncture resistant hard case tires made by Bontrager or Specialized. I replaced my tires every 1200 miles, though this was probably overly conservative. A hand pump, tire levers, a multitool, and extra tubes are an absolute minimum for a cross-country ride.

Beyond flat tires, I also learned how to adjust the derailleurs (for smooth shifting), remove a cassette, replace broken spokes, and true a wheel. I carried extra spokes, a spoke wrench, and a cassette adaptor for replacing a broken spoke, but I did not carry a chain whip and wrench for removing the cassette on the rear wheel. You can continue to ride with a broken spoke though you risk permanently damaging the wheel.

Cross-country rides take their toll on the chain - regularly cleaning and lubricating the chain (especially after cycling in rain) will increase the chain life and reduce drag. However, it is probably prudent to replace the chain once during the trip. A chain tool and replacement pin should be part of your spare parts, especially for longer rides or rougher conditions.

Your Turn: Road Cycling Skills

Road cycling - especially on a cross-country journey - requires some comfort and experience with cycling on busy roads with fast-moving traffic. The most important preparations I made over the two years I planned this trip were getting used to cycling on roads in New York and its surroundings including a five-day trip from New York to Montreal.

Road conditions:
The truth is that a substantial fraction of a cross-country trip requires you to cycle on roads with fast-moving traffic. While intelligent routing can limit your exposure to high traffic areas, some 70% of your journey will require riding on two lane highways with a speed limit in excess of 60 mph. Rare will be extended periods on paved bike paths or residential streets.

The most important principle of road cycling is to treat your bike like a vehicle - never ride against traffic, obey lights and stop signs, and ride predictably as if you were driving a car. As a cyclist, you have full rights to use the highway (freeways and interstates are usually the exception where bikes are typically prohibited), but as a practical matter, you are expected to ride as far to the right as safe.

On highways, the vast majority of cars and trucks will pull over to the other lane to pass. However, the occasional driver will not, passing you quite closely. Holding a steady line will minimize any dangers from close passing traffic, though the experience may still be unnerving. Drivers deliberately running cyclists off the road is rare (and has never happened to me), but some other cross-country cyclists I met on this trip reported such incidents. In these cases, it's important to try to keep your bike straight on the grass or gravel off the road. A fully loaded bike is fairly stable, and unless you are traveling at high speed, you should be able to keep control.

Using the shoulder:
Roads with a generous shoulder are a cyclist's friend and form a de facto bike lane in many areas. Moreover,  the size of shoulder typically correlates with traffic volumes. Avoid riding too far to the right in the shoulder -  debris from the roadway including metal and glass pieces that cause flats accumulate there. On busy roads, rumble strips on the left side of the shoulder will naturally form a barrier between cars and cyclists.

On highways with narrow shoulders or otherwise rough road, you may be forced to ride on the white line or even ride inside the lane itself. Moreover rumble strips may force you to ride in the lane even if the highway has a narrow shoulder. Several stretches of US-12 in South Dakota featured these conditions. As long as you maintain visibility and ride predictably, riding inside the lane should not be a problem. It may inconvenience traffic that is forced to slow down, but as a cyclist, you are within your rights to take the lane. Indeed, in high traffic situations - in suburbs or on bridges - it may be best to move to the center of the lane and control traffic behind you.

At faster speeds in a tailwind or during a descent, ride further away from the road edge towards the lane. You are more likely to lose control if you ride off the road and injuries would be more severe.

In the end, riding on the highway with traffic is an act of faith. The likelihood of a sober driver running into a cyclist from behind on a clear day is minimal, but injuries would probably be severe in case of an accident. The vast majority of cycling accidents occur in urban areas at intersections.

Maintaining visibility:
On the open road during daytime and good weather, a cyclist will be fairly visible to cars from a distance. However, on highways, it is generally advisable to take further precautions to maintain visibility to drivers. I always wore bright colored clothing and, on the busiest roads, I typically wore a reflective yellow safety vest. My rain jackets were also brightly colored, and, in the rain, I attached a blinking red light to the back of my bike to improve visibility. I did not have to ride in foggy conditions or through heavy rain - in those conditions, it is advisable to wait for conditions to improve.

Riding the interstate:
Cycling on the interstate is not permitted in most states outside of the West and is certainly not advisable in suburban or urban areas. However, in many western states, the interstate may be your best (or only) option. I traveled on the interstate several times in Montana and Oregon and generally found the interstate to be easier to ride on than many highways. Shoulders are nearly always in excess of five feet and multiple lanes allow traffic to pass comfortably. Moreover, with a divided highway, oncoming trucks do not buffet you with a gust of headwind as they pass by (in contrast to a two-lane highway).

However, pay attention at on ramps and off ramps - as a cyclist, you take several seconds to cross the entrance/exit lane and cars may misjudge your speed. Also, shoulders on the interstate can narrow or disappear on bridges.

NB: This post and previous posts is merely intended to provide advice and impressions gathered in my time road cycling and during my cross-country journey. It should not be construed as advocating for cross-country cycling or declaring that road cycling is a safe activity. Road cycling carries considerable risks that must be weighed by any prospective cyclist.

Your Turn: Researching a Route

During my cross-country trip, many people I came across expressed an interest in someday embarking on their own long distance bike ride. I spent the better part of two years thinking about my trip and preparing for it - thinking about routes, developing road cycling skills, and accumulating the gear I would need. Over the next three posts, I will offer some thoughts on preparing for a cross-country ride.

Mapping a route:

Studying and thinking about your route is key for any cross-country ride. The vast majority of cross-country cyclists follow the routes designed by the Adventure Cycling Association. Their maps are well-researched and frequently updated based on the feedback they receive from cyclists. However, their routes carry a couple of disadvantages: they typically avoid major cities and their cross-country routes are not the most direct adding hundreds of miles to a cross-country journey.

Primarily in order to create the most direct transcontinental route, I designed my own route from New York to Miles City, MT before picking up the Lewis and Clark trail. Even after, I followed my own route for a couple days from Three Forks, MT to Lincoln, MT. 

I mapped these routes using the bike routes feature on Google maps, and then manually adjusting these maps to avoid finding myself on gravel roads or spending excessive time on gravel bike trails. The street view feature is invaluable for giving you a sense of the road traffic and size of the shoulder, and it's best to avoid selecting routes without street view. Beware that out West, Google bike routes will put you on dirt fire trails or logging roads to keep you off the Interstate, so each route needs to be studied carefully. All my routes are available online by clicking on the "Stage Summary" link at the end of each post.

Using bike trails:

In the East and around many cities, Google maps frequently puts you on dedicated bike trails. The city trails are often paved, but longer trails are either gravel, dirt or crushed limestone. As a road cyclist, I was initially leery of spending much time on these trails - it is much easier to lose control of your bike in ruts on these trails and increases rolling resistance. However, typically these trails are well maintained and suitable for a road bike. Moreover, rail trails have gentler gradients and are quiet and scenic. Traillink.com is a great resource for getting feedback from riders on whether a given trail is suitable for a road bike.

Which direction?

The great debate over traveling from east to west or west to east is unlikely to be resolved. It is certainly true that near the coasts prevailing winds blow west to east, and it is also true that a stiff headwind is more frustrating and dispiriting than heat or rain or cold or climbing. That said, either direction you travel, you will encounter both days with headwinds and days with tailwinds.

It's also worth noting that heading east often involves hours of cycling into the sun. Over my entire trip, I never needed sunglasses since I was cycling west and was finished in the afternoon. The glare from a rising sun probably makes it harder for traffic to see you in the mornings if you are traveling east.

River crossings:
Roadways typically narrow on bridges and otherwise comfortable shoulders may disappear when crossing a major river. In most large cities, many but not all river crossings will have a dedicated bike route. However, major river crossings outside of cities can be quite long and fairly narrow (see Astoria-Megler Bridge) Again, the street view feature of Google maps is fairly useful in determining the size of the shoulder and figuring out traffic volumes on the roadway.

Portlandia

After reaching the Pacific coast on Thursday in Astoria, I returned by bus to Portland on Friday to take in more of the sights of the city over the weekend. The Rose City lived up to its reputation as the land of bicycles, microbreweries, coffeehouses, and facial hair. In Portland, local stores remain dominant (save for the high number of Starbucks) with people buying their books at Powell's, not Amazon. With one of the highest concentration of restaurants per capita before even counting all the food trucks, Portland offers a compelling food scene as well.

The unofficial slogan of Portland

As luck would have it, I find myself in Portland at basically the best time of the year. With clear skies, high temperatures in 70s, and no humidity or rain, Portland felt like coastal California. I took advantage of this good weather to roam the Japanese gardens in Washington Park yesterday morning and explore North Portland today including a tour at the Widmer Brothers Brewery, home of America's first hefeweizen.

Sculpture in the Japanese garden in Washington Park

One of the ways Portland keeps itself weird is its fanatical support for the Portland Timbers - a soccer team that has recently joined the MLS. I managed to secure a ticket in the Timbers Army section of the sold out Jeld-Wen Arena to watch them take on the LA Galaxy. With a purple shirt and no Timber gear, I stuck out like a sore thumb in the Timbers fan section prompting me to run out and buy a Timber cap. Nevertheless, when I returned, the gig was up and the fans around me asked me if it was my first game and whether I knew anything about soccer. I gave them my story, and sensing the opportunity to recruit a new fan, these season fans generously gave me a Timbers scarf and a printout of the fan chants.

To the uninitiated, watching a soccer game in person is unlike watching any other professional sport in the US. If you are sitting in the fan section - the Timbers Army in my case - expect to stand the entire match and chant constantly with captains who spend the entire match facing the crowd and leading the chants and songs. A goal by the Timbers was celebrated by Timber Jim sawing off a section of pine with a chainsaw and lifting it like a scalp for the crowd. Needless to say, the atmosphere is like no other sporting event and has few equals, even in European club football. A second half stoppage time winner from a corner made the atmosphere that much more electric. I think I may have my MLS team.

Day 40: "O! the Joy"

Forty days and just shy of 3300 miles, my ride across America comes to an end at a haunting shipwreck on the Pacific coast. The anticipation of arriving at my final destination woke me up early this morning, and it turned out I needed every minute to make the trek from Portland to Astoria, OR and the coastline. Describing the moment as bittersweet might seem a bit trite, but the word seems appropriate. I am certainly happy to have traversed this distance without incident and eager to get back, but I will miss life out on the open road.

Western terminus at Fort Stevens, OR on the Pacific Ocean

Nature conspired today to make the final day of riding a bit more difficult than usual. A cool wind out of the northwest off the ocean grew steadily stronger as I zeroed in on the coast pushing me back east. The Columbia River Highway from Portland to Astoria is hardly a pleasant cycling route with several steep climbs and a fairly narrow shoulder amidst heavy traffic. Logging and allied industries ensure a steady stream of large truck traffic. Conditions were more favorable in terms of temperature - some brief morning cloud cover gave way to steady sunshine with the ocean breeze keeping temperatures no higher than the mid 60s.

Wreck of the Peter Iredale on the Oregon Coast

As the miles added up, the increasing wind and the widening river were the only clues that I was approaching the coast. Forests and hills kept the horizon close with a fresh scent of cedar from the procession of logging trucks. However, shortly after entering Astoria, the first scent of saltwater materialized, with a view of the broad estuary following shortly thereafter. Two hundred years earlier, Captain William Clark wrote in his journal, "Ocian in view! O! the joy," but still needed an additional three weeks to make it past the estuary to the ocean proper.

At the Pacific in front of the Iredale wreck

My first glimpse of the Pacific only came as I made my final turn into Fort Stevens Park. I carried my bike over the sand dunes as the Pacific looked brilliant in the afternoon sunshine. Built on the sight of an old military installation, the park seems to be a good place to experience the Oregon coast - the craggy outcroppings near the beach and the evergreen rainforest just inland. Wading in the cold water, I poured a small vial of Atlantic Ocean water that I had carried cross-country from Brighton Beach.

Recreation of Fort Clatsop, winter encampment of the Lewis and Clark expedition

With time running out to drop off my bike in Astoria for shipping and despite not stopping for lunch, I raced over to Fort Clatsop just five miles away from the coast. Here stands the site of Lewis and Clark's encampment where the Corps of Discovery spent the winter of 1805 where they hoped in vain to spot a clipper ship to avoid returning by land. I managed to survey the memorial and get back to Astoria to drop off my bike and some gear for shipping back to New York.

Sunset over the Pacific with Astoria-Megler Bridge in the background

So ends my transcontinental bike ride. In the coming days, I will add some additional posts with thoughts and advice for those contemplating their own trip. 

For now, some thanks are in order: I could not have done this without the support of those who cycled with me and visited me out on the road, often at great personal expense. I also want to offer a special thanks to my family who were not entirely comfortable with this endeavor but nonetheless supported me throughout the way.

STAGE SUMMARY:

Starting Point - Portland, OR

Ending Point - Fort Stevens, OR

Distance - 105.1 miles

Cumulative Distance - 3299.9 miles

Vertical Elevation - 4937 feet

Counties - Multnomah, Columbia, Clatsop, OR

Wind - moderate headwind