The Magic Mountain

Any trip to Europe for work gives me a good excuse to take an extra day and get something closer to a pure cycling experience. Cycling around RI is okay, but it doesn't quite hold a candle to the European experience. So last Saturday, I rented a road bike in Barcelona and went cycling north towards the magic mountain.

It was surprisingly simple to find a place that provided high quality road bikes. Cuesta Cycling, operated by a Dutch expat, not only provided an excellent carbon road bike but also a guide to lead me through the in and outs of the cities and towns north of Barcelona. Of course, the guide cost me 150 euros, but all things considered, seemed like the most efficient way to get in a true cycling experience.

Looking up at Monserrat

My guide, a wiry Colombian named Johnny showed up to my hotel at 7 AM ready to go. Immediately, I was a bit intimidated by this svelt cyclist who I could've mistaken for Nario Quintana. Needless to say, I was sure I was gonna be slowing this guy down going up the climbs (and down and on the flat parts, for that matter).

On the climb to Monserrat

Our main objective for the day was Monserrat - a Category 1 climb nicknamed the magic mountain about 35 miles north of Barcelona. The trip out to the start of the climb was through the suburbs and industrial areas north of Barcelona - not terribly memorable, but we did see a lot of cyclists. The climb itself was about 9 kilometers at a grade of 6% baking in the sun. It wasn't the toughest climb I've ever done (that was Gran Colombier in 2016), but I definitely needed to conserve energy for a several more climbs on the rest of the ride.

Johnny the guide (waiting for me)

The rest of the day was a hot ride through the windy canyons north of Barcelona and then through the suburbs back into the city. My failure to put on any sunscreen gave me a mean farmer's tan, and I think my Columbian guide was getting impatient near the end as I slowly cranked the pedals up the bluffs overlooking Barcelona. All in all 80 miles with 7000+ ft of vertical elevation - not a bad days work. I promptly undid all the good work with churros, tapas, and white wine in the evening!

Overlooking Barcelona

Click here for stage map and elevation profile.

Fifty plus One

Recent commentary on the current government shutdown and the fast-approaching debt ceiling crisis have often cited gerrymandering as the proximate cause for the rise of a bloc of conservative congressmen pushing the Republican conference to confrontation. As often, the media conventional wisdom badly misses the mark.

Sizable Republican gains in the 2010 midterms at the state level paved the way for Republican redistricting in swings states like Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Despite Obama winning each of these states by varying margins, the House delegations are overwhelmingly Republican (12-4 in Ohio, 9-5 in Michigan, and 13-5 in Pennsylvania). In 2012, total votes cast in House elections for Democrats exceeded Republicans by 1.7 million, yet Republicans held the House 234-201.

While gerrymandering in these and other states limited Democratic gains in the House, demographics and sorting are largely to blame for the differences between the overall vote totals and the division of seats in the House. Democratic voters are increasingly concentrated in urban areas, and, therefore, even under a "fair" redistricting, Republicans would likely outperform their overall vote totals given that Republican votes are more geographically diffuse (see this blog post from John Sides).

However, the gerrymander has very little to do with the dynamics driving the current standoff in Washington. Indeed, since the object of a gerrymander is to spread your voters across several districts, a gerrymander should generate more marginal districts with lawmakers who have stronger incentives to appeal to moderates and members of the opposite party. Many of the Republican House members expressing reservations about the shutdown hail from gerrymandered districts (see this roll call).

Much of the analysis surrounding the shutdown has also suggested that because of increased polarization of congressional districts, political pressure this time is less likely to force a resolution compared with the last government shutdown in the 1990s (see this article from National Journal). As economists like to emphasize, think marginal not average. That the average Republican district has become redder matters less than the number of marginal Republican districts. To the extent that a government shutdown benefits Democrats in 2014, these gerrymandered districts may give Democrats a better chance to take control of the House. In a less gerrymandered world, Republicans majority would likely be narrower but more durable. By broadening the playing field, a gerrymander gives Democrats a better opportunity to exploit any backlash and retake the House. Their prospective majority (like the 2008 majority) would be precarious, but all it takes is 50 + 1 to run the House.

See this blog post by Nate Cohn making a similar point.

Whither the Debt Ceiling?

Though this blog has mostly featured excerpts from my cross-country bike trip earlier this summer, I promised sundry other topics and, aside from the odd post about Tottenham Hotspur, future posts will probably be more heavily geared to economic policy and politics.

The threatened shutdown of the federal government in less than four days is currently occupying much of the media's attention but just weeks later a much more problematic threshold awaits: the debt limit. The debt limit restricts the total borrowing of the US Treasury, and after October 17th, absent Congressional action, the Treasury would no longer be able to pay all the bills of the government.

This clip from the West Wing pretty well captures the political norms around the debt ceiling under previous presidents - in particular, using the debt ceiling as leverage to achieve other policy ends was considered far too dangerous. However, in the 2011 debt ceiling fight, this norm was violated as President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner negotiated deficit reduction linked to raising the debt ceiling. As discussed in this post by Matthew Yglesias and echoed by Jonathan Chait, Ezra Klein and others, this decision to allow the weaponization the debt ceiling may prove to be the costliest in Obama's presidency.

Given the threat posed by using the debt ceiling as political leverage, Obama has pledged not to negotiate again over raising the debt ceiling. Speaker Boehner, in an effort to get past the immediate government shutdown deadline, has pledged to his caucus that he will extract significant concessions from the president in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Moreover, a fraction of the House Republican caucus has expressed the view that breaching the debt ceiling would not be interpreted as a default since incoming cash flows more than cover interest payments on the debt.

So how does this game end? Each party appears to have backed itself into a corner, and it certainly would be the case that clean debt ceiling increase (Obama's preferred outcome) would have the votes to pass the House (and Senate) if brought to the floor. However, such a capitulation would likely cost Boehner his job.

One option might be to make a token concession to Boehner, but it's hard to imagine what such a concession might be that would still preserve the Obama's credibility. Paradoxically, the best way to resolve the debt ceiling may be a government shutdown next week. The shutdown would build political pressure for a resolution without risking a default and financial crisis. Concessions won on the budget would allow Boehner to claim victory while Obama could argue that he compromised over the budget, not the debt ceiling.

However, a shutdown averted this week while leaving the debt ceiling unaddressed increases the possibility of a debt ceiling breach. It's difficult to know the consequences of a default (which in the immediate days following Oct. 17 would result in delayed payments) - certainly financial markets would sell off, but a commitment by Obama to fully pay interest on the debt could be enough to head off a sharp rise in borrowing rates. A week of airports closed, soldiers and Social Security recipients going unpaid, and agencies shuttered would force Congress to raise the debt ceiling.

The Departed

Three weeks into the new season and a day before the end of the transfer window, the North London derby came early this year. Tottenham Hotspur have spent better than 100 million pounds buying players versus nothing for Arsenal, but in today's match at the Emirates Stadium, Spurs were yet again outdone by their neighbors. Arsenal's narrow win had as much to do with Spurs lack of a cutting edge as with Arsenal's superior creativity in the midfield.

Olivier Giroud with the match winner

The absence of any creativity in the side can be attributed to the departure of Gareth Bale. After today's match, Spurs announced the sale of Gareth Bale to Real Madrid for a world record transfer fee of 86 million pounds, eclipsing the fee Real paid for Ronaldo from Manchester United five years earlier. In the second half of last season, the Welsh wizard nearly single-handedly dragged Spurs into the Champions League places with late game match winners against West Ham, Southampton, and Sunderland. In two years, two of Tottenham's best creative and skillful players have left to Real Madrid: Luka Modric and Gareth Bale. A Spurs fan is only left to wonder where their team may if they remained. My fandom of Spurs began three years ago by watching these two work their magic.

At multiple points today, Spurs could have used the services of either man. While Spurs retained superior possession, they had a hard time finding their way through the Arsenal midfield and creating clear cut chances. Delivery from wide areas was poor with Tottenham showing little threat from outside the box.

The truth of the matter is that Spurs have bought almost an entirely new team this offseason. It will invariably take time for players to develop chemistry and adapt their talents to the English game. The new creative players that Spurs have signed - Eric Lamela and Christian Eriksen - just arrived and hardly featured in today's match. Moreover, in days of Modric and Bale, Spurs were overly reliant on scoring goals from outside the box - soccer's version of the low-percentage shot. Time will tell if this new team can score more "cheap" goals from set pieces and drawing penalties. But, Modric and Bale brought flair and style to the team. It may be early days, but the play of this more muscular side is damp squib in comparison to last year's team and Spurs under Redknapp.

Many Spurs fans evince a good deal of optimism about what this new team can do, and perhaps they are right. But I will certainly miss the Spurs of old . . . and sheer talent and class of Gareth Bale.

Your Turn: What to Carry?

Figuring out what to carry on a cross-country trip may seem daunting, but it is probably the easiest thing to figure out and adjust as you go along. Every cross-country cyclist faces the tradeoff of carrying more gear and being better prepared for different situations or carrying less gear and traveling lighter and faster. Your personal budget and tolerance for roughing it will dictate that tradeoff.

Camping versus motels:
Unlike most cross-country cyclists, I did not carry any camping gear on my trip. In retrospect, carrying some rudimentary camping gear might not have been a bad idea; it allows you more flexibility to adjust your mileage. I made motel reservations in advance - usually by several weeks - and therefore had a schedule to keep. The distances between lodgings in the West will often dictate riding longer or shorter distances than you might otherwise want to. Moteling is significantly more expensive than camping, but does offer some comforts at the end of the day: a bed, air conditioned room, shower, and TV/wifi. However, given that you can always opt for a motel, the only reason not to carry camping gear is to reduce weight.

Equipment:
A good road bike is a prerequisite for any cross-country trip. Your bike will cover a lot of miles and take a beating; do not attempt a cross-country trip on $50 bike from Walmart. A decent bike shop will carry touring bikes designed for long-distance riding. These bikes are engineered to attach both front and rear panniers, use cantilever brakes which are stronger than caliper brakes on a road bike, and sport the gearing for climbing comfortably while carrying 40-50 pounds of gear.

However, instead of buying a touring bike, I purchased a road bike: Specialized Secteur Elite. With a carbon fork and stem, this bike is somewhat lighter than a touring bike but has attachment points for a rear rack. Road bikes are perfectly fine for a cross-country ride so long as you do not overweight the bike; the wheels are not designed for heavy duty touring. I carried all my gear in two waterproof Ortlieb rear panniers attached to a Topeak rear rack and rear trunk bag on top.

One thing to be aware of if using a road bike is that the gearing may not be right for getting up the various climbs you encounter. My rear cassette was originally a SRAM 12-26 and even in the lowest gear, I had a lot of trouble getting up the steep grades in Pennsylvania. In Bozeman, MT, I switched the cassette to a Shimano 12-30; the larger cog (30) in the back made it considerably easier to climb. Do something I did not do: ride your bike fully loaded several times before departing.

Technology and electronics:
A good smartphone will greatly enhance a cross-country journey. A smartphone is particularly useful for finding the distance to the next food/gas station options on the route, or finding an alternative route in suburban/urban settings. In some areas of the West, cell service becomes either spotty or unavailable. I went to the trouble (and expense) of renting a satellite phone, but, in retrospect, I would only carry a satellite phone if you are cycling in remote, untraveled areas like gravel trails out West or touring in remote areas like Alaska.

Another useful gadget is a GPS for mapping and navigation. I bought a Garmin Edge 800 and, before each day's ride, I loaded the course route. With the exception of bike trails, the route maps appeared up to date and easily directed me through residential roads and rural country roads.

Clothing and other gear:
On a cross-country journey, you will need to be prepared to cycle through all kinds of weather. A couple days in Pennsylvania had temperatures in the 40s while several days out West, temperatures peaked near 100 in the afternoon. Cold weather gear may be needed depending on when you leave, a waterproof rain jacket is a must, and sunscreen essential. I carried only sandals as footwear, shorts and a T-shirt to wear when not cycling to minimize weight. I also carried my MacBook Air cross country - a unnecessary but nice indulgence at minimal additional weight.

Getting chased down by a dog is something that most cyclists can attest to. Most of the time, owners would manage to stop their dogs from chasing after me, but I did encounter cross-country cyclists who had been either chased for awhile or had dogs try to bite them. Pepper spray is an option which I carried, but many cyclists just recommend using your water bottle to spray the dog or simply trying to outrun the dog.

Bike repair and maintenance:
Before leaving on my trip, I invested a fair amount of time learning how to address a variety of possible bike breakdowns. However, as it turned out, the only problem I encountered were a couple of flat tires. My friend Andrew got a flat on the open road, riding into Minneapolis, while my bike took a flat on a day off in Miles City, MT. Needless to say, knowing how to fix a flat is a must and very easy to learn and practice. My tires were puncture resistant hard case tires made by Bontrager or Specialized. I replaced my tires every 1200 miles, though this was probably overly conservative. A hand pump, tire levers, a multitool, and extra tubes are an absolute minimum for a cross-country ride.

Beyond flat tires, I also learned how to adjust the derailleurs (for smooth shifting), remove a cassette, replace broken spokes, and true a wheel. I carried extra spokes, a spoke wrench, and a cassette adaptor for replacing a broken spoke, but I did not carry a chain whip and wrench for removing the cassette on the rear wheel. You can continue to ride with a broken spoke though you risk permanently damaging the wheel.

Cross-country rides take their toll on the chain - regularly cleaning and lubricating the chain (especially after cycling in rain) will increase the chain life and reduce drag. However, it is probably prudent to replace the chain once during the trip. A chain tool and replacement pin should be part of your spare parts, especially for longer rides or rougher conditions.

Your Turn: Road Cycling Skills

Road cycling - especially on a cross-country journey - requires some comfort and experience with cycling on busy roads with fast-moving traffic. The most important preparations I made over the two years I planned this trip were getting used to cycling on roads in New York and its surroundings including a five-day trip from New York to Montreal.

Road conditions:
The truth is that a substantial fraction of a cross-country trip requires you to cycle on roads with fast-moving traffic. While intelligent routing can limit your exposure to high traffic areas, some 70% of your journey will require riding on two lane highways with a speed limit in excess of 60 mph. Rare will be extended periods on paved bike paths or residential streets.

The most important principle of road cycling is to treat your bike like a vehicle - never ride against traffic, obey lights and stop signs, and ride predictably as if you were driving a car. As a cyclist, you have full rights to use the highway (freeways and interstates are usually the exception where bikes are typically prohibited), but as a practical matter, you are expected to ride as far to the right as safe.

On highways, the vast majority of cars and trucks will pull over to the other lane to pass. However, the occasional driver will not, passing you quite closely. Holding a steady line will minimize any dangers from close passing traffic, though the experience may still be unnerving. Drivers deliberately running cyclists off the road is rare (and has never happened to me), but some other cross-country cyclists I met on this trip reported such incidents. In these cases, it's important to try to keep your bike straight on the grass or gravel off the road. A fully loaded bike is fairly stable, and unless you are traveling at high speed, you should be able to keep control.

Using the shoulder:
Roads with a generous shoulder are a cyclist's friend and form a de facto bike lane in many areas. Moreover,  the size of shoulder typically correlates with traffic volumes. Avoid riding too far to the right in the shoulder -  debris from the roadway including metal and glass pieces that cause flats accumulate there. On busy roads, rumble strips on the left side of the shoulder will naturally form a barrier between cars and cyclists.

On highways with narrow shoulders or otherwise rough road, you may be forced to ride on the white line or even ride inside the lane itself. Moreover rumble strips may force you to ride in the lane even if the highway has a narrow shoulder. Several stretches of US-12 in South Dakota featured these conditions. As long as you maintain visibility and ride predictably, riding inside the lane should not be a problem. It may inconvenience traffic that is forced to slow down, but as a cyclist, you are within your rights to take the lane. Indeed, in high traffic situations - in suburbs or on bridges - it may be best to move to the center of the lane and control traffic behind you.

At faster speeds in a tailwind or during a descent, ride further away from the road edge towards the lane. You are more likely to lose control if you ride off the road and injuries would be more severe.

In the end, riding on the highway with traffic is an act of faith. The likelihood of a sober driver running into a cyclist from behind on a clear day is minimal, but injuries would probably be severe in case of an accident. The vast majority of cycling accidents occur in urban areas at intersections.

Maintaining visibility:
On the open road during daytime and good weather, a cyclist will be fairly visible to cars from a distance. However, on highways, it is generally advisable to take further precautions to maintain visibility to drivers. I always wore bright colored clothing and, on the busiest roads, I typically wore a reflective yellow safety vest. My rain jackets were also brightly colored, and, in the rain, I attached a blinking red light to the back of my bike to improve visibility. I did not have to ride in foggy conditions or through heavy rain - in those conditions, it is advisable to wait for conditions to improve.

Riding the interstate:
Cycling on the interstate is not permitted in most states outside of the West and is certainly not advisable in suburban or urban areas. However, in many western states, the interstate may be your best (or only) option. I traveled on the interstate several times in Montana and Oregon and generally found the interstate to be easier to ride on than many highways. Shoulders are nearly always in excess of five feet and multiple lanes allow traffic to pass comfortably. Moreover, with a divided highway, oncoming trucks do not buffet you with a gust of headwind as they pass by (in contrast to a two-lane highway).

However, pay attention at on ramps and off ramps - as a cyclist, you take several seconds to cross the entrance/exit lane and cars may misjudge your speed. Also, shoulders on the interstate can narrow or disappear on bridges.

NB: This post and previous posts is merely intended to provide advice and impressions gathered in my time road cycling and during my cross-country journey. It should not be construed as advocating for cross-country cycling or declaring that road cycling is a safe activity. Road cycling carries considerable risks that must be weighed by any prospective cyclist.

Your Turn: Researching a Route

During my cross-country trip, many people I came across expressed an interest in someday embarking on their own long distance bike ride. I spent the better part of two years thinking about my trip and preparing for it - thinking about routes, developing road cycling skills, and accumulating the gear I would need. Over the next three posts, I will offer some thoughts on preparing for a cross-country ride.

Mapping a route:

Studying and thinking about your route is key for any cross-country ride. The vast majority of cross-country cyclists follow the routes designed by the Adventure Cycling Association. Their maps are well-researched and frequently updated based on the feedback they receive from cyclists. However, their routes carry a couple of disadvantages: they typically avoid major cities and their cross-country routes are not the most direct adding hundreds of miles to a cross-country journey.

Primarily in order to create the most direct transcontinental route, I designed my own route from New York to Miles City, MT before picking up the Lewis and Clark trail. Even after, I followed my own route for a couple days from Three Forks, MT to Lincoln, MT. 

I mapped these routes using the bike routes feature on Google maps, and then manually adjusting these maps to avoid finding myself on gravel roads or spending excessive time on gravel bike trails. The street view feature is invaluable for giving you a sense of the road traffic and size of the shoulder, and it's best to avoid selecting routes without street view. Beware that out West, Google bike routes will put you on dirt fire trails or logging roads to keep you off the Interstate, so each route needs to be studied carefully. All my routes are available online by clicking on the "Stage Summary" link at the end of each post.

Using bike trails:

In the East and around many cities, Google maps frequently puts you on dedicated bike trails. The city trails are often paved, but longer trails are either gravel, dirt or crushed limestone. As a road cyclist, I was initially leery of spending much time on these trails - it is much easier to lose control of your bike in ruts on these trails and increases rolling resistance. However, typically these trails are well maintained and suitable for a road bike. Moreover, rail trails have gentler gradients and are quiet and scenic. Traillink.com is a great resource for getting feedback from riders on whether a given trail is suitable for a road bike.

Which direction?

The great debate over traveling from east to west or west to east is unlikely to be resolved. It is certainly true that near the coasts prevailing winds blow west to east, and it is also true that a stiff headwind is more frustrating and dispiriting than heat or rain or cold or climbing. That said, either direction you travel, you will encounter both days with headwinds and days with tailwinds.

It's also worth noting that heading east often involves hours of cycling into the sun. Over my entire trip, I never needed sunglasses since I was cycling west and was finished in the afternoon. The glare from a rising sun probably makes it harder for traffic to see you in the mornings if you are traveling east.

River crossings:
Roadways typically narrow on bridges and otherwise comfortable shoulders may disappear when crossing a major river. In most large cities, many but not all river crossings will have a dedicated bike route. However, major river crossings outside of cities can be quite long and fairly narrow (see Astoria-Megler Bridge) Again, the street view feature of Google maps is fairly useful in determining the size of the shoulder and figuring out traffic volumes on the roadway.